The unrest throughout the Middle East. The earthquake and nuclear disaster in Japan. The Dow jumping and falling more than 200 points in one day. Historically, these types of events are predictive of many immediate and long-term changes in the economy. However, one measure very susceptible and highly predictable following such types of events is the United States Unemployment Rate. And typically, we see it rise.

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on March 4 a .1% decline in the February Unemployment Rate. At the same time, oil production in Libya nearly halted, forcing the price of oil to $106/barrel. A rule of thumb is that for each $10 dollar increase in the cost of a barrel of oil, the price of gas as the pump will rise $0.24 over the short-term, with increases remaining steady and continuous over the long-term. With an increase in gas prices come increases in transportation costs and food prices. Change in the Unemployment Rate in the United States predictably shadows the change in oil prices.

With the crisis in Libya escalating, we know gas prices will remain high over the long-term, and can predict that the Unemployment Rate will therefore grow.

Consider that some of America's major employers include car manufacturers. Cessation of production in Japan by Toyota, Nissan and Honda has affected not only what built vehicles the United States can import, but also the import of critical vehicle parts. Decreased production of Japanese cars in America requiring parts now unavailable from Japan will require fewer workers. While this may bode well for the U.S. car industry, international automotive industries are large employers here, so these forced cuts in production can only act as additional contributors to the Unemployment Rate.

We saw the Dow drop and again increase in the wake of the events in Japan. We can expect, even by glancing not too far back in history, that this will also help the Unemployment Rate to grow. When would be a better time to restructure a severance program than when layoffs are looming in the not too distant future?

Outsourced alternative severance management programs have proven to save companies both time and cost. The Unemployment Rate will, unfortunately and most certainly, rise to some degree as gas prices continue to increase. Too often, organizations fear changing separation benefits plans when layoffs are imminent and/or immediate. Restructuring separation benefits at a time when layoffs are low yet probably six to twelve months down the road is a financial safeguard. Outsourced severance plan providers can quickly and seamlessly redesign severance programs to integrate alternative funding sources and efficiently transition impacted employees through the unemployment period.

Gas prices have now risen to above where they were mid 2008. 2009 gave us one of the worst recessions in decades. Layoffs happened. If organizations can predict this will happen again, restructuring severance should happen now, before layoffs are announced and monies wasted yet again.